As a Turkey follower (I studied the country in grad school and wrote on it for my dissertation and first book) Iโve got thoughts on Turkeyโs elections. But as someone not interested in hot takes, Iโm going to wait until the election is over to provide some analysis.
Instead, I want to talk about Pope Francisโ โpeace talksโ between Russia and Ukraine. The Pope recently announced โsecretโ peace talks between Ukraine and Russia, although neither side seemed to be aware of this. His efforts have progressed, however, with Ukraine President Zelenskyโs recent visit to Italy.
I should be a fan of this. I think Russiaโs invasion of Ukraine was, and continues to be, a war crime: it needs to stop. I study religion and international relations, and thus should welcome an example of religionโs power in the world. But Iโm concerned, not because I think heโll fail but because I worry heโll succeed.
My concerns have to do with the nature of the Popeโs current mission, and a past mission he conducted.
He is attempting to stay neutral in the conflict in order to find a middle ground between the combatants. Francis has been hesitant to call out Russia as the aggressor in the conflict while suggesting Russia was โprovokedโ into attacking Ukraine. Heโs met with Putin supporters such as Viktor Orban of Hungary.
I can understand what the Pope is trying to do. Putin will never trust someone who condemns his actions, andโif the goal is peace rather than Russian surrenderโthis neutrality is the best way to achieve it.
But as Iโve argued before, peace at any cost isnโt really what Ukraine needs. Such a peace deal would likely give Russia some control over Ukraine, which is not acceptable. Ukraine needs a just peace that includes justice for the victims of Russian aggression, not just the end of fighting.
Most commentators believe Pope Francisโ peace efforts will failโฆI worry they will succeed.
The Popeโs earlier peacebuilding in Syria demonstrates this concern. As I discuss in my forthcoming book with Cornell University Press, Francis opposed calls in 2013 for international military intervention in Syria in response to the Assad regimeโs atrocities against the Syrian people. Some of this included explicit appeals to faith. Ultimately, Francis was successful in organizing a transnational coalition against intervention.
I was also opposed to military intervention in Syria. At the same time, I did not believe peace talks would cause Assad to start respecting human rights. And, unfortunately, Francisโ successful blocking of military intervention did not lead to a concerted effort to create a just peace for the Syrian people. Instead, it gave Assad the breathing room to crush his opponents. Some see this as a permanent stain on Francisโ legacy, and I worry his efforts in Ukraine will be as well.
Most commentary on the Popeโs Ukraine peace efforts seem to think they will fail. He is intervening in conflicts among Orthodox Christians, outside the Roman Catholic sphere of influence. Zelensky continues to receive support from Western leaders; he had a positive meeting with Italian Prime Minister Meloni, and both the UK and Germany have pledged military aid.
I think he may actually succeed.
In my forthcoming book I discuss why religious appeals affect power politics, by persuading leaders and resonating with domestic publics. I also discuss when they succeed or fail.
Pope Francis may not appreciate the immense power he wields.
The key variables are the credibility of the actor issuing the appeals and the material incentives facing their targets. A speaker credible on religious issues and targets amenable to their message leads to success. The absence of these conditions leads to failure.
Most situations in the real world, however, involve a mix of the two. Situations involve either a speaker with little credibility on religious issues but the ability to provide material incentives, or a credible speakers appealing to targets with disincentives to go along with their efforts. The theme of the book is that religious appeals have real impacts on power politics, but rarely in the manner intended by their wielders.
Pope Francisโ peacebuilding efforts are a rare exception. First, if anyone is credible on religious issues itโs Pope Francis. His ascension to the Throne of St. Peter was greeted by enthusiasm around the world, given the fact that he is from the Global South and has emphasized care for the poor and social justice. He has established (possibly problematic) religious ties with the UAEโs government. Even this proud Protestant, whose Lutheran ancestors had to flee the Palatinate because of the Thirty Yearsโ War, likes him. As seen in his work on Syria, he is able to mobilize transnational and inter-faith coalitions; he may do the same on Ukraine.
Additionally, everyone involved has material incentives to listen to him. Western backers of Ukraine are wary of being drawn into the war, and some worry about the drain on their military readiness from continued support. The war is not working out for Russia, and itโs not inconceivable Putin is looking for a face-saving out. Even Ukraineโs will may begin to wear down as this goes on.
Thus, even if Francis cannot bring Putin and Zelensky together, his efforts may spark a transnational social coalition that puts pressure on all involved states to end the war.
Again, if the goal was just peaceโi.e. the absence of fightingโthis would be good. But this sort of โpeaceโ means Russia will not have to repair the country it devastated, while Ukraine will likely have to give up full control of its territory. Pope Francisโ efforts may succeed, but leave the people heโs trying to help worse off. This would not be a failure of his influence, but, ironically, an unfortunate success for religious appeals in power politics. Pope Francis may not appreciate the immense power he wields.