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The government of a country makes explicit or implicit threats to another: “if you cross this line, we will inflict harm upon you.” The threat fails; the government crosses the designated line. Has deterrence failed?
Well, yes. Of course. By definition. It is, for example, unequivocally true that the United States did not deter Russia from invading Georgia in 2008, nor Ukraine in 2014, nor Ukraine (again) in 2022. Should you have any doubts about this, you can always go read a nearly four-thousand word Foreign Policy article on the subject.
I agree with its authors, Liam Collins and Frank Sobchak, that U.S. policymakers made a number of mistakes in handling Russia. Trump’s rhetoric concerning NATO, Russia, and Ukraine did not exactly help make U.S. deterrence credible; then again, Trump wasn’t in office when Putin ordered the invasion. In retrospect, Obama’s decision to withhold lethal aid from Ukraine was probably mistake, as not much seemed to happen when the Trump administration reversed course. But do we really think that providing more javelins in 2015 or 2016 would have deterred Putin’s invasion?
Apparently, yes. For Collins and Subchak, Washington’s failure to deter Russia means that U.S. policymakers should, ipso facto, have adopted a more hardline policy toward Russia. But much like the opposite claim—that Georgia and Ukraine “prove” that the U.S. should have adopted a more accommodating approach toward Russia, for example, by not expanding NATO—we’re looking at reasoning that is less “ipso facto” than “post hoc ergo propter hoc.”
That is, just because X preceded Y does not mean X caused Y. In the context of policy analysis we might add that just because Y is bad doesn’t mean Y’ would be better.
Sometimes, X isn’t even X. The fact that ‘deterrence failed’ doesn’t imply that any attempt to accommodate Russia was a capitulation to Moscow. Sometimes the opposite is true.
For instance, Collins and Sobchak argue that Ukraine shows the folly of Obama’s decision to cancel the “Third Site” anti-ballistic missile system, which involving placing radar in the Czech Republic and interceptors in Poland.
But the Obama administration replaced the “Third Site” with the European Phased Adaptive Approach (EPAA), which (as the Russians soon figured out) was easier for the United States to upgrade into the kind of system Moscow worried about. EPAA also entailed eventual deployments in Romania; Obama committed to stationing Patriots on Polish territory, as well “left open the door to stationing new types of missile defense interceptors in Poland, an offer the Poles later agreed to accept.” Moreover, at the Wales NATO summit Obama convinced NATO to affirm that missile defense was part of its collective mission.
Given all of this, it seems bizarre to claim, as Richard Minter did in 2014, that after “Obama delayed deployment of missile defenses in Eastern Europe, Putin knew he had a free hand to reassemble the old Soviet Union piece-by-piece. Invading his neighbors would now be cost free.”
Now, Collins and Sobchak don’t write anything quite so ridiculous. But they sometimes land come within striking distance.
Consider the very opening of the article, which discusses the U.S. response to the Russia-Georgia war:
Recall the aftermath of the 2008 invasion of Georgia. The Bush administration airlifted Georgian soldiers serving in Iraq back to Georgia to fight, provided a humanitarian aid package, and offered tersely worded denouncements and demarches. But it categorically rejected providing Georgia with serious military assistance in the form of anti-tank missiles and air defense missiles and even refrained from implementing punishing economic sanctions against Russia. The United States’ lack of resolve to punish Russia for its gross violation of international law was underscored when U.S. National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley’s remark “Are we prepared to go to war with Russia over Georgia?”—made during a National Security Council meeting after the war started—was later released to the media.
Keep in mind that they’re talking about an effort to proved anti-tank missiles and air-defense systems during a war that lasted five days—one in which Russia systematically annihilated the shiny systems that the United States and its partners had previously provided. If the argument is that the United States should have given Georgia anti-tank weapons or air-defense missiles after the conflict, then (while that might have been a good idea) it’s not clear to me how that would’ve signaled U.S. resolve.
(Stephen Hadley’s remark first appeared, if I remember correctly, in Ron Asmus’ book about the Georgia war. So the passive voice is definitely doing some work here. At the time, Hadley refused to comment on the specific quotation but did confirm that the Bush administration decided that the risks of using force outweighed the benefits. This “revelation” shouldn’t have surprised anyone, including Moscow, since, you know, the United States did not, in fact, use force. What’s particularly strange about this example is that it’s backwards. What surprised people was the extent of support within the administration for a more aggressive response. The headline of the Politico article that I linked to above wasn’t “The United States didn’t risk war for Georgia.” It was “U.S. pondered military use in Georgia.”)
It is not obvious that the United States could have secured support for, say, more punishing sanctions. The Georgia War did not deter France from closing a deal to sell two Mistral-class helicopter carriers to Russia. Paris only cancelled that sale after the 2014 invasion of Ukraine, when Hollande (rather than Sarkozy) was president (interesting side note here).
But, as is typical for this genre, the article never seriously considers either the viability or the downside risks of alternative policies. This is… problematic… given that it is very difficult to assess what the world would like after fifteen years of concatenating changes produced by different policy decisions.
None of this means that we shouldn’t evaluate past policies and work through conterfactuals. That’s a crucial element of policy analysis, social-scientific inquiry, and policymaking, Collins and Sobchak, like too many others, don’t even do the bare minimum—in their case, despite writing a piece that runs as long as a short academic article in International Relations.
That failure is particularly pernicious when an obviously “bad outcome” makes it easy to gloss over. In fact, the last sentence of Collins and Sobchak’s article gives the game away:
The sad irony is that U.S. leaders, of both parties, chose to avoid deterrence for fear of escalating conflict—only to find themselves continually escalating their support once conflict started. Time after time, the United States chose the option that was perceived as the least provocative but that instead led to the Russians becoming convinced that they were safe to carry out the most provocative action of all: a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
The United States ignored the eternal wisdom of the Latin phrase Si vis pacem, para bellum (“If you want peace, prepare for war”) and instead hoped that half-steps and compromise would suffice. While so far those decisions have prevented direct conflict between two nuclear-armed superpowers, they have caused Russia and the West to be locked in a continuing series of escalations with an increasing danger of a miscalculation that could lead to exactly that scenario.
“The problem is that the whole process has been secret,” said John Ruff, left, a former English professor opposed to Valparaiso’s plan to sell paintings. Richard Brauer, right, a former art professor whom the school’s museum is named after, said, “It really does outrage me.”
Historically Black Harris-Stowe State University in St. Louis has announced the creation of a new academic college focused on science, technology, engineering, and math. The new College of STEM essentially institutionalizes the St. Louis-based university’s efforts over the last decade to develop a diverse pool of talent for Missouri’s STEM workforce.
Harvey R. Fields, Jr. has been named the inaugural dean of the College of STEM. He most recently served as the associate dean for student success at Washington University in St. Louis. As dean of the College of STEM, Dr. Fields will oversee the college’s creation and implementation. He will be responsible for ensuring the integrity and quality of each of its respective academic departments and existing programs, as well as developing new programs.
“Harris-Stowe has an exemplary track record of generating positive impact, strong outcomes, and enhanced possibilities for underrepresented and under-resourced students,” Dr. Fields said. “Furthermore, HSSU contributes to the improving status, standing, and attractiveness of the Greater St. Louis region as a preferred location for individuals, families, and businesses. I fully identify with and embrace the Harris-Stowe mission.”
Dr. Fields is a graduate of Morehouse College in Atlanta, where he majored in chemistry. He holds a second bachelor’s degree in chemical engineering from the Georgia Institute of Technology and a master’s degree and a Ph.D. in chemistry from Washington University.
Elizabeth Armstrong-Mensah, clinical associate professor in the School of Public Health at Georgia State University in Atlanta, has been honored with the 2023 Early Career Teaching Excellence Award from the Association of Schools and Programs of Public Health. The honor is given to one faculty member each year from among the 138 member institutions in the Association of Schools and Programs of Public Health. The award recognizes faculty for outstanding teaching and mentoring of students in public health research, teaching, and practice.
“My passion for teaching and mentoring is rooted in the fact that I want every student I teach or mentor to excel,” Dr. Armstrong-Mensah said. “When I was a student in college, I benefited immensely from faculty who were passionate about the courses they taught. Their approach helped me excel in my studies. When I became a faculty member, I remembered how I had been taught and decided to pay it forward.”
Through the Undergraduate and Graduate Research and Publications Club, Dr. Armstrong-Mensah works with students to develop research that addresses a range of public health challenges. To date, more than 100 students have participated in the club, with more than 50 students publishing peer-reviewed research publications that advance knowledge as part of their club engagement experience.
“Dr. Armstrong-Mensah is dedicated to ensuring that students have learning experiences — both inside the classroom and out — that prepare them to make a difference in the health of communities,” said School of Public Health Dean Rodney Lyn. “I am thrilled that she has been recognized with this significant honor.”
Dr. Armstrong-Mensah joined the faculty at Georgia State University in 2017 after working for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and teaching at the Morehouse School of Medicine in Atlanta. She holds a bachelor’s degree in sociology and a master’s degree in international affairs from the University of Ghana. She earned a Ph.D. in international affairs and development from Clark Atlanta University.
Mississippi State University received a $347,959 grant from the National Endowment for the Humanities for development of a hands-on, research field school for students to help preserve a historic Black cemetery near campus. The cemetery was used by the Black community in Starkville from the late 1800s to the mid-1950s, with the oldest marker dated 1882. Students will learn Geographic Information System and Ground-Penetrating Radar analysis while also delving into archival searches and oral histories within the community. The project is under the direction of Jordon Lynton Cox, an assistant professor of anthropology
Coppin State University, the historically Black educational institution in Baltimore received a $2 million grant from Truist Financial Corporation to establish the Truist Hub for Black Economic Mobility. The hub will enhance the quality of advising, programming, and technology related to educational opportunities and career pathways for Coppin students. The $2 million grant is the largest corporate commitment in Coppin’s history.
Historically Black Fayetteville State University in North Carolina received nearly $400,000 from the North Carolina Department of Health and Human Services to enhance the Collegiate Recovery Community Program. The funding will create the Bystander and Mental Health First Aid training programs, enhance alcohol/drug-free social activities for students, and increase involvement of student groups and peer mentorship.
Saint Augustine’s University, the historically Black educational institution in Raleigh, North Carolina, received a $490,000 federal grant to fund the Public Health Education Center at the university. The Public Health Education Center will support health and wellness education, student research regarding the long-term effects of COVID-19, and related programs. Funding will also support faculty, establish smart classrooms for students, and purchase research and lab equipment.
The University of Georgia received a $5 million grant from the U.S. Agency for International Development for the implementation of a program entitled Higher Education Conservation Activity in the Republic of Liberia in Africa. The program aims to strengthen forest management and conservation in Liberia through education, training, and technical assistance.
Historically Black Morgan State University in Baltimore was awarded a $420,000 grant by the Army Research Office to conduct pioneering, interdisciplinary research integrating mathematics with computational science, mechanical engineering, and medical research in the study of respiratory conditions and other lung diseases. Using high-performance computing, including mathematical equations, and lung geometry, researchers in the School of Computer, Mathematical and Natural Sciences will pursue simulations of respiratory mechanics that can replicate the condition of lungs, and provide knowledge about respiratory patterns and rates that lead to pulmonary fibrosis, as well as asthmatic, chronic breathing conditions.
C. Denise Okafor, assistant professor of biochemistry and molecular biology and of chemistry at Pennsylvania State University has been selected as a recipient of the 2023 Marion Milligan Mason Award for Women in the Chemical Sciences from the American Association for the Advancement of Science.
The Mason Award commemorates the late chemist Marion Tuttle Milligan Mason, who wanted to support the advancement of women in the chemical sciences. The Mason Award is a highly competitive award that attracts applications from the very best early-career female chemists across the country. First awarded in 2015, the Mason Award has funded the research of 18 scientists who represent a diverse range of specialties within the chemical sciences.
Dr. Okafor’s research combines computational and experimental investigations to develop a fundamental understanding of how protein function is regulated. She investigates the structural mechanisms of signaling and regulation in protein complexes and uses simulations to determine how conformational dynamics of proteins are altered in different functional states.
Prior to joining the faculty at Penn State in 2020, Dr. Okafor was a postdoctoral researcher at the Emory University School of Medicine in Atlanta from 2015 to 2019.
Dr. Okafor earned a bachelor’s degree in biomedical chemistry at Oral Roberts University in Tulsa, Oklahoma. She holds a master’s degree in chemistry and a Ph.D. in biochemistry from the Georgia Institute of Technology.
Michelle Garfield Cook has been named the next vice president for student affairs at the University of Georgia. She has been serving as senior vice provost, where she oversaw strategic initiatives and programs spanning the University of Georgia while also leading the Office of Institutional Diversity.
Dr. Cook joined the staff at the university in 1998. She holds a bachelor’s degree from Princeton University, a master’s degree from Yale University, and a Ph.D. from Duke University.
Tasha A. Carson has been appointed assistant vice president for first-year students in the Division of Enrollment Management at Tennessee State University. She was the executive director of new student programs and retention at the university. She joined the staff at Tennessee State in 2018.
Dr. Carson holds bachelor’s degrees in political science and human science and a master’s degree in counselor education from North Carolina Central University. She earned a Ph.D. in higher education administration from Jackson State University in Mississippi.
Anthony D. Henderson, Sr. was appointed director of athletics at Hampton University in Virginia, effective February 27. Henderson comes to Hampton from Yale University where he served as deputy director of athletics. Earlier, he was the senior associate athletics director and executive director of athletics advancement at the College of William & Mary in Williamsburg, Virginia.
Henderson is a graduate of Hampton University, where he majored in marketing and played football. He holds a master’s degree in sports leadership from Virginia Commonwealth University.
Brenda Tindal is the first chief campus curator for Harvard University’s Faculty of Arts and Sciences. She has been serving as the executive director of Harvard Museums of Science and Culture. Earlier, she was the founding director of education and engagement for the International African American Museum in Charleston, South Carolina.
Tindal earned a bachelor’s degree in history and Africana studies from the University of North Carolina at Charlotte. She holds a master’s degree in American Studies from Emory University in Atlanta.
Anna Ponder was appointed vice president for alumni, development, and communications at Lawrence University in Appleton, Wisconsin. Dr. Ponder was vice chancellor for advancement at the University of South Carolina Beaufort.
Dr. Ponder earned a bachelor’s degree in French language and European history from Spelman College in Atlanta. She holds a master’s degree in international economics and African studies from the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies, and a Ph.D. in political science from Yale University.
Ingrid Thompson-Sellers is the new president of Atlanta Metropolitan State College (AMSC) in Georgia. She took office on February 1.
The college enrolls just over 1,600 students, according to the most recent data available from the U.S. Department of Education. African Americans make up 85 percent of the student body.
In 2017, Dr. Thompson-Sellers was appointed president of South Georgia State College in Douglas. Previously, she was a professor of business information systems at Georgia State University in Atlanta and had served as senior associate dean at the university. Earlier she taught at Georgia Perimeter College in Decatur and at what is now Iona University in New Rochelle, New York.
“AMSC’s strong academic mission and student-focused degree programs are a testament to its legacy of making higher education accessible to more Georgians,” Dr. Thompson-Sellers said. “I look forward to helping my new campus family continue blazing those new trails and thank my South Georgia State College family for their hard work and amazing support of the college and its students.”
Professor Thompson-Sellers holds a bachelor’s degree in physics from the University of the West Indies in Jamaica. She earned a master’s degree in telecommunications from Iona University and a doctoral degree in instructional technology from Georgia State University.
The board of regents of the University System of Georgia has appointed Georj Lewis as president of Clayton State University in Morrow, Georgia. Since 2019, Dr. Clayton has been president of Atlanta Metropolitan State College (AMSC).
“Clayton State University helps metro Atlanta thrive with top-ranked programs including nursing and by being the best support for students as they improve social mobility and advance their dreams and careers,” Dr. Lewis said. “It’s an honor to join with Laker Nation’s faculty and staff to help cement its reputation as one of the best state universities in Georgia. I’m also incredibly grateful for the students, faculty, and staff of AMSC. It’s been an honor to be a part of their journey toward success.”
Clayton State University enrolls just over 6,000 undergraduate students and nearly 700 graduate students, according to the most recent data from the U.S. Department of Education. Women are 72 percent and Blacks are 64 percent of the undergraduate student body.
Prior to being named president of Atlanta Metropolitan State College, Dr. Lewis was vice president of student affairs at Georgia Southern University. Earlier, he was vice chancellor for student affairs at Indiana University Northwest and vice president for student affairs at Armstrong State University which was merged into Georgia Southern University.
Dr. Lewis holds a bachelor’s degree in business and accounting and a master’s degree in counseling/student personnel, both from Edinboro University of Pennsylvania. He earned a doctorate in educational leadership from Georgia Southern University.
The Crafts, a married couple in Macon, Georgia, fled bondage in plain sight: she disguised as a white man, he as her slave. In a riveting excerpt from her new book, Master Slave Husband Wife, Ilyon Woo documents their flight:
As dawn began to break, the station filled with travelers bound for Savannah. Ensconced quietly in the only car where a Black man was supposed to sit, William carried the cottage key and a pass. And he, or perhaps Ellen, carried a pistol. On this morning, William had to hope that they would not need to use it. He himself had resolved to kill or be killed, rather than be captured.
Traffic at the station thinned as travelers crowded about the train, ready to board. They said their goodbyes. For enslaved riders, this may have been the last time they would see the faces of loved ones, if their loved ones even had permission to see them off.
With the engine fed and the water tank full, the conductor made his final calls. William dared to peek outside. Linked to him, he knew, if only by way of rickety clasps between the cars, was Ellen, who by this time should have been seated in first class. It would be difficult for William to see her before the train stopped. But briefly, William could glimpse the ticket booth, where Ellen, as his master, would have purchased two tickets.
Instead of his wife, he saw another familiar figure hurrying up to the ticket window. His heart dropped. The man interrogated the ticket seller, then pushed his way through the crowd on the platform, with purpose. It was William’s employer — not his legal enslaver, but another white man who “rented” William’s labor in a cabinet shop. This man, who had known William since childhood, scanned the throng as he approached the cars.
The cabinetmaker was coming for him.
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